Wednesday, October 20, 2004
When You Wish Upon an Asterisk
This may be the last of these polls before the election.
I wasn't really expecting it to be posted yet but it went up yesterday. I look at Tennessee still red on the Battleground States map and scowl.
My scowl lessens when I remember that at least this is the only poll that even considers Tennessee battleground, everybody else considered it a Bush lock all along. Based on a secret and highly technical statistical matrix of my own devising--namely, that no state with me in it could be considered any such thing--I disagreed.
Go lookee here. Wall Street Journal/Zogby. Scowl at the map as necessary but then go look at the numbers chart on the right.
Every single state still showing a Bush lead is within the margin of error. And some of them pretty damn teensy. In fact the longer I look at these numbers the more amazed I am. Remember Bush is already at his ceiling as the incumbent, there is nothing he can do at this point to get anyone who isn't already a True Believer.
We usually leave the polling stuff to our geek buddies over at dKos who know more about such matters, but this was just too good not to pass on. Keep your cutlasses loose in their scabbards still, but take heart, me hearties, these blackguards are goin' down.
I wasn't really expecting it to be posted yet but it went up yesterday. I look at Tennessee still red on the Battleground States map and scowl.
My scowl lessens when I remember that at least this is the only poll that even considers Tennessee battleground, everybody else considered it a Bush lock all along. Based on a secret and highly technical statistical matrix of my own devising--namely, that no state with me in it could be considered any such thing--I disagreed.
Go lookee here. Wall Street Journal/Zogby. Scowl at the map as necessary but then go look at the numbers chart on the right.
Every single state still showing a Bush lead is within the margin of error. And some of them pretty damn teensy. In fact the longer I look at these numbers the more amazed I am. Remember Bush is already at his ceiling as the incumbent, there is nothing he can do at this point to get anyone who isn't already a True Believer.
We usually leave the polling stuff to our geek buddies over at dKos who know more about such matters, but this was just too good not to pass on. Keep your cutlasses loose in their scabbards still, but take heart, me hearties, these blackguards are goin' down.
