Saturday, October 23, 2004

Gaslight Watch: No evidence of pre-election plot 

Of course, faith is the evidence of things not seen....

after hundreds of interviews, scores of immigration arrests and other preventive measures, law enforcement officials say they have been unable to detect signs of an ongoing plot in the United States, nor have they identified specific targets, dates or methods that might be used in one.

"We've not unearthed anything that would add any credence to talk of an election-related attack,"
(via WaPo)

Possibilities, possibilities....

Possibility 1. A vigilant administration repelled the threat? Possible. But if it happened, it was most likely by chance. Here's the system the FBI is using:

The FBI's approach depends on "tripwires" to detect suspicious activity. The system, implemented last year and based on the behavior of the 19 Sept. 11 hijackers, generates alerts if a known subject buys an airline ticket, rents a car or applies for a driver's license -- in his or her own name.

In their own name. Um... And why would the next attack follow the same pattern as the last one? That's just what AQ doesn't do! Fighting the last war...

Possibility 2. Bush got gamed by bad information again; a second Chalabi told Him what he wants to hear. More likely, since that's a known Bush character flaw which the country's enemies are fully capable of exploiting:
Even as the government intensified its campaign, authorities discovered that one of the CIA sources they had relied on had fabricated his story, according to several counterterrorism officials. One intelligence official said the revelation "caused us to go back to square one and reassess where the plotting really is."

Other officials, however, played down the source's importance. "It's thought that what he had said was pure misinformation" designed to mislead the government, a different intelligence official said. But, the official added, that did not increase anyone's comfort level, because there are many other sources indicating that al Qaeda wants to launch an attack.

Possibility 3. If AQ attacked Spain to win political advantage, doesn't it follow that they have not attacked the US, becuase that is to their political advantage? After all, Bush is their most effective recruiter.

Possibility 4. There is no threat. After all, the entire Homeland Security apparat is out on the campaign trail in swing states (Condi, Ridge). Don't they have jobs to do back in DC? Oh, wait.... Electing Bush is their job... What was I thinking.

Possibility 5. All of the above....

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