Monday, October 18, 2004
Don't Panic -- Yet
Okay folks I understand why you're nervous that several polls are showing Chimpy opening up a lead on Kerry. And since the media often creates the reality, the fact they are playing this (according to Unka Karl's script) as evidence of Bush "pulling ahead" in the election is certainly something to be concerned about.
But not so fast folks. First of all, the two polls that are showing the biggest leads have been two of the least reliable in the last two elections. The poll that was the most reliable in the last couple of elections, the Reuters-Zogby poll, shows the race as a dead heat.
However, the big thing to keep in mind is that none of this horse race stuff means a damned thing. It's all about the Electoral College folks. Winning the popular vote in a presidential election doesn't do a thing for you -- it's the Electoral College that's important. And, if you've been following your state-level polls (go here), they have some fairly good news for Kerry. In fact, they show Kerry with a lead currently in the Electoral College.
So don't despair -- yet. However, I do agree with several of my friends who have suggested it's time to dump the stump speech on healthcare and the economy. Kerry needs to just hit Bush over the head with the immoral fool's errand of a war he took us into a year and a half ago.
That one issue is what is going to win it (or lose it) for Kerry. Only one issue counts: Iraq. That's all W is talking about.
It's all Kerry should be talking about as well.
But not so fast folks. First of all, the two polls that are showing the biggest leads have been two of the least reliable in the last two elections. The poll that was the most reliable in the last couple of elections, the Reuters-Zogby poll, shows the race as a dead heat.
However, the big thing to keep in mind is that none of this horse race stuff means a damned thing. It's all about the Electoral College folks. Winning the popular vote in a presidential election doesn't do a thing for you -- it's the Electoral College that's important. And, if you've been following your state-level polls (go here), they have some fairly good news for Kerry. In fact, they show Kerry with a lead currently in the Electoral College.
So don't despair -- yet. However, I do agree with several of my friends who have suggested it's time to dump the stump speech on healthcare and the economy. Kerry needs to just hit Bush over the head with the immoral fool's errand of a war he took us into a year and a half ago.
That one issue is what is going to win it (or lose it) for Kerry. Only one issue counts: Iraq. That's all W is talking about.
It's all Kerry should be talking about as well.
