Tuesday, July 06, 2004
The Wecovery: Krugman: As always, the numbers tell the tale
So, if this is a recovery, where are the jobs? Paul Krugman explains:
So, what to make of this mysterious failure of Americans to appreciate the Bush recovery? It's not mysterious at all: Taking inflation into account, the people with jobs are worse off, since wages have stagnated.
Are you better off today than you were four years ago?
If you want a single number that tells the story, it's the percentage of adults who have jobs. When Mr. Bush took office, that number stood at 64.4. By last August it had fallen to 62.2 percent. In June, the number was 62.3. That is, during Mr. Bush's first 30 months, the job situation deteriorated drastically. Last summer it stabilized, and since then it may have improved slightly. But jobs are still very scarce, with little relief in sight.
Bush campaign ads boast that 1.5 million jobs were added in the last 10 months, as if that were a remarkable achievement. It isn't. During the Clinton years, the economy added 236,000 jobs in an average month. Those 1.5 million jobs were barely enough to keep up with a growing working-age population.
In the spring, it seemed as if the pace of job growth was accelerating: in March and April, the economy added almost 700,000 jobs. But that now looks like a blip — a one-time thing, not a break in the trend. May growth was slightly below the Clinton-era average, and June's numbers — only 112,000 new jobs, and a decline in working hours — were pretty poor.
Where is the growth going? No mystery: after-tax corporate profits as a share of G.D.P. have reached a level not seen since 1929.
Economic growth is passing working Americans by. The average weekly earnings of nonsupervisory workers rose only 1.7 percent over the past year, lagging behind inflation.
(via the only reason-to-read-them-is-Krugman New York Times)
So, what to make of this mysterious failure of Americans to appreciate the Bush recovery? It's not mysterious at all: Taking inflation into account, the people with jobs are worse off, since wages have stagnated.
Are you better off today than you were four years ago?