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From Stratfor.com's Geopolitical Diary: Tuesday, July 20, 2004.

Russia: Putin Considers Sending Troops to Iraq

Summary

Moscow is considering a request by the Bush administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan this fall, just before the U.S. presidential election. The move would be of enormous benefit to U.S. President George W. Bush and a risky venture for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces his own Islamist insurgency in Chechnya and public opposition to U.S. policy in Iraq. Torn between his desire to support Bush and his need to address domestic concerns, Putin will delay his final decision to the eleventh hour.

Analysis

Moscow and Washington are quietly negotiating a request by the Bush administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan this fall, Russian government sources tell Stratfor. The talks are intense, our contacts close to the U.S. State Department say, and the timing is not insignificant. A Russian troop lift to either country before the U.S. presidential election would give U.S. President George W. Bush a powerful boost in the campaign.

Sources close to Russia's Security Council tell Stratfor that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to the request "in principle" and has directed the Russian General Staff to work up a plan by the end of the month. Before making a decision, however, Putin wants to make sure all logistical and international legal questions are resolved -- perhaps with United Nations involvement -- and he will not move without a formal U.S. request. It is a tough decision for Putin, who will carefully weigh the risks and rewards and likely make his decision at the last possible moment.

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