Friday, April 16, 2004
Juan Cole on Sadr and the Sadrists
So—ho hum—all that "gangster" and "thug" rhetoric from Dear Leader is just wrong:
Oh.
The "kill 'em all" strategy won't work.
Damn.
I am often highly impressed with the intelligence and learning of the military officers I meet at security conferences. But I confess myself deeply puzzled as to how, after being in Iraq for over a year, these bright and well-informed persons could have gotten the Sadrist movement so wrong.
1) It is a longstanding social movement, not just a fly by night militia
2) It is not tiny in numbers of adherents, though not all adherents are willing to put themselves out for it at the moment; that could change.
3) It has lots of potential leaders besides Muqtada
4) Its cadres can easily become guerrillas, as the Army of the Mahdi shows.
So you can't wipe it out, and you can't hope that it will just go away, and it is highly unwise to start a decades-long (yes) feud with it.
(via Informed Comment)
Oh.
The "kill 'em all" strategy won't work.
Damn.