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Tuesday, April 13, 2004

Iraq insurgency: Why killing the latest "bad guy," Sadr, won't work 

Excellent analysis from the essential Juan Cole:

The problem with this approach is that the Sadrists are a widespread social movement whose history goes back over a decade, and killing Muqtada [Sadr] will not end the movement. There are lots of potential successors to Muqtada [Sadr]. The chief characteristic of the Sadrists is their cheekiness. They were cheeky to Saddam, and they will be cheeky to Gen. Abizaid. They are desperately poor ghetto dwellers, they don't like The Man, and they think they have nothing to lose in taking Him on. If the US military thinks this is a military problem with a military solution, they are just clueless. Someone on a discussion list said that Iraq is not Vietnam because this time the generals are in charge, and they know what they are doing. The US officers in Iraq are bright, dedicated persons, but they don't know squat about Iraq (even Abizaid, a Lebanese Christian, is hardly an Iraq expert), and it also isn't at all clear that they are setting the agenda. Going after Muqtada [Sadr], for instance, almost certainly was the idea of the civilian politicians in the CPA and the Department of Defense.
(via Informed Comment)

Thanks, RNC operatives in the "Republican Palace", for using brute force and ignorance to make a bad situation far worse.

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