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Monday, April 05, 2004

Bush wants you to shop—just not to comparison shop 

Bush uses the same style of argument for Iraq and for his tax policies.

With Iraq, the question is not: (1) Was it good to overthrow Saddam? The question is: (2) Was war in Iraq the best use of our military, given AQ?

To make the best use of your resources, you have to "comparison shop" between a lot of good things, and the very few best things—and that's what Bush doesn't want you to do. (Since if you answer "yes" to (1), you might well vote for him, but if you even think of asking (2), you probably won't.)

The economist's term for "comparison shopping" is "opportunity cost" (back here) , and that's what a successful CEO takes into account when deciding where to invest.

So with tax cuts, the question is not: (1) Will tax cuts for the rich stimulate the economy? The question is: (2) Are tax cuts for the rich the best way to stimulate the economy?

And again, to make the best choice, you have to comparison shop. Most professional economists will answer "Yes" to question (1), the question Bush wants you to ask, but answer (2), the question Bush doesn't want you to ask, with a resounding "No!"

"Almost any tax cut or spending increase would succeed in boosting a sluggish economy," said William G. Gale, an economist at the Brookings Institution. "The key question is, therefore, not whether the proposals provide any short term stimulus but whether they are the most effective way to provide stimulus."

Gale and others argue that a more effective economic stimulus would be tax cuts more narrowly targeted to lower-income people, who would tend to spend a larger portion of their tax cut than would wealthier people. According to an analysis of Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts by the Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute, more than half the tax relief this year went to taxpayers earning more than $100,000 a year.
(via LA Times)

Bush is like an 18th century doctor who, because his remedies of bleeding and purging didn't actually kill the patient, claims credit for the cure.

And the economy is rebounding in spite of Bush's medicine, not because of it. Not that you or I see any benefit from the rebound, of course (back) but that is a separate issue.

NOTE Of course, the RNC attack machine has started AstroTurfing on Bush's Orwellian "tax relief" (see American Journal of Politics). The bogus letter begins: "President Bush’s economic policies are right for America and home state>.." and AJP notes the usual lies in it.

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