corrente

To piggyback on Lambert's post below, everyone should take a deep breath, sit back, relax, and then start to think, preferably with clarity.

FACT: Two influential current polls, sponsored by major media players, CNN-Gallup, Washington Post/ABC released yesterday show improvement in the President's poll numbers against Kerry, interpreted by the polls as slippage for Kerry, this after two weeks of what one would assume to have been incredibly bad news for the current administration.

I won't repeat what Kos and Marshall have to say, but go read them, including the bit about the Zogby poll's rather different results. (links here).

No one can be entirely sure what the polls really mean; much of the result can be the result of statistical drift, as well as what questions are asked. Billmon, who, thankfully, has reopened the Whiskey Bar, has some fun juxtaposing (in his hands a technique that is fast becoming an art form) a few of the self-cancelling internal contradictions to be found among the answers to some of the WaPo poll questions:

Q: Please tell me whether the following statement applies to George W. Bush or not: He is honest and trustworthy.
Yes: 55%
No: 44%
Don't Know: 1%

Q:Please tell me whether the following statement applies to George W. Bush or not: He's always truthful in explaining his policies.

Yes: 46%
No: 53%
Don't Know: 2%

Check out Billmon's personal favorite here.

And you can enlighten yourself on the structure of polls by checking out the internals of the WaPo/ABC poll for yourself, question by question, here.

FACT: Such polls do have an impact on opinion makers, who can influence public perceptions of Bush's strengths, and Kerry's weaknesses.

FACT: Whatever the reality behind these polls, already we see the Washington establishment ramping up to interpret the results as a decided minus for Kerry.

BLITZER: How the Clinton the Bush White House handled warnings of al Qaeda activity prior to the 9/11 attacks. How President Bush is doing on the job. These are questions all asked in a brand new CNN/"USA TODAY"/Gallup poll. Here to look at the numbers as he always does, our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider. Take a look at the first number. A head to head match-up between the president and John Kerry look at this, Bush 51 percent, John Kerry 46 percent.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: That's remarkable given the fact the last few weeks have been bad weeks for the president. There's been losses in Iraq, 9/11 Commission revelations, gasoline prices, what many regarded as an unconvincing performance in the president's prime time press conference. What Americans seem to be doing is rallying to the president in the time of international crisis. His ratings went up. That lead is a little higher than it was couple of weeks ago, because Americans instinctively support the president. You mention troops in Iraq, support for sending more troops in Iraq has actually gone up.

BLITZER: Clearly this is the first major poll done since his nationally televised news conference. Who is doing a better job, who would do a better job as far as handling Iraq is concerned. Bush 55 percent, Kerry 41 percent. What do you make of this? SCHNEIDER: Despite the losses, what Americans think two words, bush in Iraq, they remember something the United States won. They went in with overwhelming force, they got rid of Saddam Hussein regime and Saddam Hussein is now in captivity. So, the view is if you want someone that can handling a situation like that, a man of strength and decisiveness and resolve, Bush is your man.

BLITZER: Now as far as handling terrorism, similar result, even better for the president. Would do a good job handling terrorism, yes, Bush 64 percent, 43 percent for Kerry. That's more than a 20 point slip.

SCHNEIDER: It's a huge advantage for Bush, and this is the issue he wants to run on. He said this election will be on the following question, which one of us can better win the war on terror?

He said that because it's his strong suit.

BLITZER: All right, there's a weak suit he has as well. That's the economy. Look at this. Would do a good job handling the economy, 49 percent say the president, a 55 percent give a better mark to John Kerry.

SCHNEIDER: This is his weak issue. The Democrats would like to make a referendum on the economy. They are hoping it would be like '92 was for father. Remember the economy (UNINTELLIGIBLE), the referendum no the economy. But there's a difference, the difference is 9/11. And for the reasons we just saw, the president's determined not to let this simply be a referendum on the economy, and the figures show why.

All that's missing are the pompom girls. Note the talking point about Democrats/Kerry wanting to run only on the "economy," you'll hear it often in the coming weeks. It makes it seem as if there are no real arguments to be mounted against the Bush administrations handling of foreign policy, post 9/11.

Those facts notwithstanding, the worst thing any of us who want to see Kerry elected the next president is to let ourselves be influenced by the spin around these polls.

I think Kos is right to point out that Kerry has been spending his time raising money and done one hell of a job, but he's been an absent presence, while Bush, during the last two weeks, has spent less time campaigning, more time in a Presidential mode, even if that's meant explaining why his foreign policy is such a mess.

UNHAPPY FACT AND MAJOR KERRY CHALLENGE: Foreign policy almost always rebounds to the advantage of an incumbent, even when things are going wrong. Lambert's exactly right about the subject most in need of addressing is how we, bloggers, readers, activists, radio hosts, any and all of us who are determined to end the Bush Presidency next November rather than four Novembers from then, can help Kerry and the Democrats meet this challenge. My contribution, coming soon, a discussion of how we can change Kerry's mind about the position he's thus far etched out on the Bush administration's too tight embrace of Sharon's policy of "withdrawal - not."

UNHAPPY FACT AND MAJOR KERRY CHALLENGE: It's becoming increasingly clear courtesty of Bob Somerby, that the Washington "heathers" don't like Kerry in the same way they didn't like Al Gore. Examples are everywhere. Here's a snippet from Lou Dobbs CNN show yesterday, Roger Simon, Karen Tumilty, and Ron Brownsein doing the color commentary.

DOBBS: Well, last week, we were able to talk here about how well or not so well the president did in his press conference. We now have that opportunity to discuss Senator Kerry on "Meet the Press." Is "Meet the Press" a forum that is losing its -- well, its attractiveness for candidates? How do you think Senator Kerry did, Roger?

SIMON: I think he had mixed results. I think "Meet the Press" continues to be one of those rites of passage that candidates have to -- candidates and incumbent presidents have to appear on if they want to be elected or reelected.

I thought Kerry did fine when he was attacking George Bush. He's got that down. I think he did less than fine when he was defending his own record. I thought that the clip that Tim Russert showed of Kerry in 1971 talking about how he had committed, sort of, atrocities in Vietnam led to a very poor response by Kerry. He joked about, you know, how he had dark hair back then. And it was also a missed opportunity, as Karen said on the...

DOBBS: I'm sorry to interrupt you, Roger, we got about 15 seconds. Karen.

TUMULTY: Well, I just think he's got to come up with a better explanation on that $87 billion vote that -- the amendment that he voted against.

BROWNSTEIN: Lou, the appearance may have been most valuable as a reminder for the people that John Kerry is running for president, because it's been awful hard to tell that the last few weeks.

DOBBS: OK. Ron, Karen, Roger, thank you very much for being here.

Something of a relief that they ran out of time. The reasons for this antipithy are complicated, as are the implications, a subject I'll also address in another post, but this time we have no excuse for not being ready.