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Sunday, February 22, 2004

Polling as social signalling, and how that affected Dean 

Interesting article from Clay Shirkey at Many-to-Many.

The question pollsters want respondents to hear is “If you were to regard this poll question as your vote, who do you favor?” It may be that decades ago, in an age where polls were rare and respect for authority was reflexive, respondents tried their best to answer that question. Today, however, is different. Today respondents hear “Knowing that this question is not binding, and that it will be a signal to people who want to make decisions based on your answer, and understanding that if you say ‘Not sure’ you are largely nullifying your ability to send such a signal, who are you going to tell me you favor?”

Because polling is not the same as voting, and because the voters didn’t know much about Dean other than that he stood for “the Democratic wing of the Democratic party”, he may have been the ideal way of surfacing the issues and strategies the voter’s would respond to, while committing them to no particular candidate.

Interesting....

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