Tuesday, October 14, 2003
Are We Downhearted?*
Just because Shrub appears to have caught a bounce in his overall approval rating in that CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll?
Reader Hobson is, a bit, but then he is self-described as a default pessimist. Hobson brings the poll to our attention as discussed, rather briefly in the Chicago Tribune. Fifty-six % is surely a healthy bounce. But what does it really mean?
Well, for one thing, it means that his descent in the polls is over, for now. It also means that CNN and MSNBC, those bastions of the SCLM, can crow with relief that they won't have to change the basic narrative they've already worked out for the coming election. Both cable outlets trumpeted the plus 50 % who thought the president deserved a second term, without pointing out what even the Tribune manages to:
Might it also mean that the glamor of Yawnold has burnished all things Republican?
Or could it mean that the self-described PR offensive by the administration to convince Americans that they can't trust a free media unconstrained by government to tell them the truth about Iraq is already paying off?
Billmon gives us a glass half full, and a glass half empty;an interesting theory about what might be behind those overall approval numbers, and a reminder of some chinks in the Bush armor that are show up even in a positive poll like this one, paired with this caution:
I find Billmon's other theory more compelling, but then I'm a default optimist.
One undeniable aspect of the public's view of its current president, the majority of Americans want to believe that this president is an honorable man, straight-foward and honest. I know that is infuriating, but there it is. If we're going to win the next election, there's very little value to be had in railing against the stupidity of our fellow Americans. At least some of those same Americans who want to believe in the decency of George W. Bush are the same Americans we're going to have to convince that Bush is leading America in the wrong direction. That may well be the challenge, and one thing we can be certain of, it won't be met by calling those we seek to convince "stupid."
For another fascinating take on that Gallup poll, check out Digby's comments on this discussion at Ray Teixeira's excellent site
Reader Hobson is, a bit, but then he is self-described as a default pessimist. Hobson brings the poll to our attention as discussed, rather briefly in the Chicago Tribune. Fifty-six % is surely a healthy bounce. But what does it really mean?
Well, for one thing, it means that his descent in the polls is over, for now. It also means that CNN and MSNBC, those bastions of the SCLM, can crow with relief that they won't have to change the basic narrative they've already worked out for the coming election. Both cable outlets trumpeted the plus 50 % who thought the president deserved a second term, without pointing out what even the Tribune manages to:
In the survey, 53 percent of respondents said the president deserves a second term, 45 percent said he does not. Thirty-eight percent said they would definitely vote for Bush, 38 percent said they would definitely vote against him and 24 percent said they were unsure.
Might it also mean that the glamor of Yawnold has burnished all things Republican?
Or could it mean that the self-described PR offensive by the administration to convince Americans that they can't trust a free media unconstrained by government to tell them the truth about Iraq is already paying off?
Billmon gives us a glass half full, and a glass half empty;an interesting theory about what might be behind those overall approval numbers, and a reminder of some chinks in the Bush armor that are show up even in a positive poll like this one, paired with this caution:
It's also possible, however, that Bush truly is covered with a coat of Gipper-brand telfon. The emotional bond that many Americans (especially those of little brain) formed with Shrub in the aftermath of 9/11 may very well be unbreakable -- and impervious to fact or reason.
If the latter is true, Shrub's reelection would seem to be inevitable -- an incumbent that goes into a campaign with the rock-hard support of something like 50% of the electorate is pretty much home free.
I find Billmon's other theory more compelling, but then I'm a default optimist.
One undeniable aspect of the public's view of its current president, the majority of Americans want to believe that this president is an honorable man, straight-foward and honest. I know that is infuriating, but there it is. If we're going to win the next election, there's very little value to be had in railing against the stupidity of our fellow Americans. At least some of those same Americans who want to believe in the decency of George W. Bush are the same Americans we're going to have to convince that Bush is leading America in the wrong direction. That may well be the challenge, and one thing we can be certain of, it won't be met by calling those we seek to convince "stupid."
For another fascinating take on that Gallup poll, check out Digby's comments on this discussion at Ray Teixeira's excellent site
